Measurements, mechanisms, and management recommendations for how marine protected areas can provide climate resilience
Résumé
The number of marine protected areas (MPAs) implemented globally is rising, with calls to 7 protect 30% of the ocean by 2030. One potential benefit of MPAs is increased resilience to 8 anthropogenic climate change impacts. However, realistic ecological expectations are needed 9 to identify the conditions that may yield resilience benefits and determine effective evaluation 10 methods. To date, global meta-analyses have consistently shown positive ecological effects of 11 protection, yet assessing resilience effects has been more complex. 'Resilience' is challenging to 12 define and measure and may manifest at various spatiotemporal scales. Additionally, 13 identifying an appropriate reference point to quantify resilience is challenging. Robust 14 assessments require long time series to estimate variability or opportunistic observation of 15 disturbance and recovery. Such data are not always available. We suggest an alternative, 16 complementary approach. First, it is crucial to define the ecological and socioeconomic 17 mechanisms by which an MPA could provide any resilience benefit to the human-natural 18 system; these mechanisms are both limited and context-dependent. Then, we can measure 19 indicators of resilience to assess the contribution of such mechanisms inside MPAs. This 20 provides a pathway to assess how conservation influences adaptive capacity, overcoming the 21 challenge of directly measuring resilience itself. Finally, it is critical to recognize that MPAs are 22 only one tool in a portfolio of management actions that could improve resilience. They should 23 not be misconstrued as standalone solutions, but rather as integral parts of a comprehensive 24 approach to ecosystem-based sustainability management.
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